🚨 Breaking 🚨
US Non-Farm Payrolls (September)
Actual: 119k
Forecast: 53k
Previous: -4k
Unemployment Claims
Actual: 220k
Forecast: 227k
Previous: 228k
At first glance, these numbers may appear positive, suggesting that the US economy is stabilizing. However, it’s important to consider the broader context. The data may look stronger partly because the US Government Shutdown has just ended.
Historically, the first month of every financial quarter tends to show positive indicators, as no country wants negative economic data to surface at the start of its financial cycle.
Additionally, the first month’s data for Q4 has not been released due to the shutdown, which may also contribute to the appearance of improved numbers.
Summary👇
Recent US labor data—higher than expected Non-Farm Payrolls and slightly improved
unemployment claims looks positive on the surface. But this improvement may be influenced by two factors:
The US Government Shutdown ending, and
The tendency for the first month of any financial quarter to reflect positive economic signals.
Since the first month of Q4 data was delayed, the currently released figures may not paint the full picture of the economy.
